In 2023, the leadership transition at the Westminster branch of the SNP could spark broader change within the independence movement. Stephen Flynn assumed control of the situation without facing his predecessor, Ian Blackford.
Ian Blackford observed the election of Stephen Flynn as his successor via zoom, surrounded by his closest associates. Also, boxes
His impending forced departure from the two-story, wood-paneled suite of offices provided to the head of the third party in parliament was a source of regret and annoyance.
Nicola Sturgeon had made her discontent with colleagues obvious. This savage political assassination was a rare instance of lack of discipline within her ranks.
In the Westminster group’s standing orders, public criticism of colleagues is expressly prohibited, but in private, SNP lawmakers can be unexpectedly vicious.
One parliamentarian’s appraisal of a colleague is, “What a c***.” “He is a * and a slacker,” a separate MP describes a fellow SNP politician.
A nationalist who represents a big rural area has an ego proportional to the size of his constituency. A lesser-known politician is “thick as two planks”
Mr. Flynn, the new Westminster leader of the SNP, is now tasked with the unpleasant task of coordinating these diverse skills.
His hasty election was not only the most recent indication of party dissension but also a strong indication of a generational shift.
The “kill job”
Mr. Flynn was the legislator behind the coup and its primary beneficiary, but he never openly faced Mr. Blackford.
Instead, after months of courting MPs and stating he had “no intention of running,” Mr. Flynn enlisted the help of his friend and fellow MP, David Linden, to do the dirty work.
Mr. Linden met with Mr. Blackford’s chief whip and presented him with a lengthy list of names. We have the support of the majority of SNP members of parliament and would win a leadership contest. Your move.
A coworker stated, “Even if he won by a handful of votes, Ian would be doomed.”
Mr. Blackford’s choice was influenced by a conversation with Ms. Sturgeon and her offer of a new role in her newest push for Scottish independence.
The frustration of the prime minister was not solely due to the loss of a close ally. With various public sector issues in Scotland and internal divisions over transgender legislation, however, Ms. Sturgeon has limited capacity to handle additional SNP drama. “She f***ing rules the government,” argued one legislator. The fewer thoughts she has about us, the better.
The new manager
When I inquire about the coup when I see Mr. Flynn for coffee a few days after his victory (he orders an oat flat white), he smiles.
He maintains the dubious assertion that there was nothing of the sort. Regarding Mr. Linden’s role in dispatching Mr. Blackford, he responds, “I am unaware of any list.”
Nevertheless, the new leader appears secure in his talents and unconcerned about upcoming problems.
His performance at PMQs without notes prompted praise from political observers.
“Despite being shouted down, I study extensively and feel secure in the House of Commons,” he says to me. It is an engaging technique that is relatively uncommon, especially among front-bench legislators.
Rishi Sunak enters the weekly meetings with a ring binder with facts, whereas Keir Starmer carries a stack of pre-written questions.
An acquaintance denigrating Mr. Blackford’s work in financial services stated, “It appears that Stephen believes in some of that nonsense.” That is preferable to a very wealthy banker discussing poverty.
The Westminster faction
In addition to his budding friendship with Ms. Sturgeon (“I’m sure we’ll catch up in the New Year – she’s been quite supportive”), Mr. Flynn will have to deal with the many personalities of his flock of MPs. One politician stated, “Everyone has a complaint.”
Pete Wishart’s pointed resignation letter as he left the SNP frontbench was notable since such demonstrations of discord are uncommon within the party.
Beyond the infighting, there is a wider issue, which some members of the SNP Westminster group view as a persistent wound: Who is leading the charge for Scotland’s independence, MPs or MSPs? Who is the front line and who is the rear?
It can result in contradictory messages for delicate egos, according to one participant “At Westminster, you’re made to feel like a demi-god. However, return to Scotland, where local councils and MSPs wield influence.”
Mr. Flynn is confronted with a paradox: he may now have the party’s largest UK-wide media platform, but he has absolutely no authority, and no chance will change.
Motivating forty-five legislators with such a dismal outlook is challenging. Polls indicate that Scottish Labour is on the increase; hence, SNP losses at the general election are likely.
A prominent member of the Scottish Labour Party asserted that the party is now “competitive” in 15 seats, including all seven held by nationalists in Glasgow.
The unique conference
Mr. Flynn is known to be more impatient than his predecessor on independence, but he remains silent when I bring up the most critical event for the SNP in 2023: their special spring gathering to examine the party’s strategy for leaving the United Kingdom.
After the Supreme Court ruled in November that a second referendum cannot occur without Westminster’s permission, Ms. Sturgeon declared a meeting will be held to discuss a de facto independence referendum.
In contrast to the party’s meticulously orchestrated and drama-free yearly conferences, this gathering may be the catalyst for internal divisions to emerge.
Others argue that Ms. Sturgeon’s drive for independence has been neither urgent nor bold.
The change
Even if Ms. Sturgeon’s political stature and iron grip on the SNP means that she alone will determine the timing of her retirement, discussions on the first lady’s future are virtually endless. Many predict that this will most likely occur after the elections of 2024.
The permanence of her presence at the top of Scottish politics makes it difficult for many to envision a successor. It also indicates a broad pool of potential candidates.
Ms. Sturgeon has been a member of the Edinburgh government since the closing weeks of Tony Blair’s tenure as prime minister. She is Scotland’s longest-serving first minister, having served for eight years after seven years as Alex Salmond’s deputy.
When Ms. Sturgeon was first elected to the Scottish Parliament, Mr. Flynn was eleven years old. Mhairi Black, his subordinate, was five years old. The SNP have spent their entire adult life in government and are now part of a new generation.
And this, together with the marginal nature of Mr. Flynn’s Aberdeen South seat, is the reason why some expect that, after leading the party at Westminster, he will seek the top position in Edinburgh.
“That is not my primary concern,” he asserts. “My priority is getting us out of this area. I will not deviate from that objective.”
2023 could be a transformative year for the SNP. If so, Mr. Flynn will presumably play an important role.
