The transport secretary, who had previously accurately estimated Boris Johnson’s support in the leadership race, characterized his recent forecast as “a statistical prediction.”
Grant Shapps, a member of the Cabinet, has revealed that he accurately predicted the magnitude of the recent revolt of Conservative lawmakers against Boris Johnson to within one vote.
The transport secretary predicted the magnitude of the opposition to the prime minister’s leadership with greater precision than the Conservative whips.
The backroom dealmakers were taken aback by the size of the rebellion, having underestimated the number of members of the parliamentary party who supported a vote of no confidence earlier this month.
Ultimately, Conservative MPs supported Mr. Johnson by a vote of 211 to 148, but the opposition was greater than in 2018 when Theresa May faced a vote of confidence.
She had the support of 63% of her MPs but was forced out of office within six months.
41 percent of Mr. Johnson’s MPs voted against him, a worse result than Mrs. May.
While the Tory leader and his supporters insist it was a “decisive” victory, it has left him battered in the wake of the partygate scandal, the cost of living crisis, political challenges, and the threat of further blows in two crucial by-elections on June 23.
Mr. Shapps had accurately predicted the number of Conservative MPs who supported Boris Johnson as a leader in the past.
When asked on a Sunday program if he had been “on the money again” since the recent vote of no confidence, Mr. Shapps responded, “One out”.
He added, “However, I should note that it is not as useful as it sounds, nor as accurate as it sounds, as it is a statistical prediction rather than the votes of specific individuals.”
However, when pressed as to whether he had alerted Mr. Johnson beforehand, he remained evasive, although it is likely that, as a key ally, he would have flagged the numbers.
Mr. Shapps told Mr. Ridge, “I will not go into specifics of the conversation”.
To put an end to the recent internal infighting, he added, “Everyone is now in the mindset of letting the prime minister have the opportunity, space, and time to continue with some of his work”.
Mr. Johnson’s former anti-corruption champion, John Penrose, who resigned after accusing the prime minister of violating ministerial rules regarding lockdown-busting Downing Street parties, stated that the result of the vote of no confidence allowed the Tory leader to “reset.”
The Conservative lawmaker told Ridge: “I believe the prime minister has bought himself a bit of time by winning the vote, even though he would have preferred a much more decisive victory with a larger margin.
“And people like me and others must respect the outcome of the vote, which we must accept and respect, as I believe everyone does.
“This means the prime minister has a bit of time to implement the reset he has already stated he desires.
“He is aware that he needs to rebuild some bridges if you will, and he has stated that he intends to do so, which I believe is entirely appropriate”.
He added: “However, I do not believe that rebuilding bridges will involve ignoring the issue, as I do not believe that this is how ethics works.
“I don’t believe that’s how integrity works.
To address the concerns, I believe you must demonstrate that you are altering both what you are doing and how you are doing it.
“You cannot simply ignore them and act as if nothing happened”.
