In recent years, investors have shied away from expensive values despite a favorable opinion of the US’s long-term outlook.
The carnage on the US stock market may have reached a point where investors are willing to reinvest or increase their holdings.
Insurers: calmer waters ahead? These battered shares may rebound.
The stock market declines are a result of inflation fears and the belief that higher interest rates, which are required to combat inflation, will force the world’s largest economy into recession.
This is accompanied by a massive sell-off of U.S. government bonds since bond yields increase as interest rates climb to continue attracting purchasers.
This renders the yields on older existing bonds less appealing, prompting investors to sell them quickly and causing bond values to plummet.
However, if you are an investor with a long-term perspective, a severe bout of inflation or even a recession may pass within a few years.
Observe the S&P 500 graphs below, which indicate that the market’s upward trajectory continued unabated despite severe shocks (with, of course, the important caveat that past performance is not a guide to future returns).
However, the turmoil in U.S. financial markets may indicate that they have become inexpensive enough to warrant a second look. Below, financial experts discuss recent developments and potential investment opportunities.
What is the state of the U.S. financial markets?
The next Monday is Independence Day in the United States, but investors have little to celebrate, according to Darius McDermott, managing director of FundCalibre.
Both the US equity and bond markets have had a harrowing start to 2022,” April was only the fourth month in over 50 years in which the S&P 500 plummeted more than 5% and US treasuries fell approximately 2%.
According to McDermott, the situation has not improved, as headline inflation surpassed 8% this month and the US stock market reached bear market territory, meaning that it has plummeted more than 20% from its peak. Best (and cheapest) stocks and shares DIY investing and Isas.
However, he believes that the US stock market is more appealing than it has been for a long time because valuations were high after the US-led global markets for nearly a decade and it was difficult to justify adding to holdings.
‘Now that the market’s bubble has burst, a variety of sectors, including smaller enterprises and massive mega-cap tech stocks, offer considerably superior value.
As the rate-hiking cycle continues, I anticipate continued market volatility, and the danger of a recession is rising, with many saying it is a matter of when not if, it comes.
However, markets move ahead of economies, and I believe that much of this risk is already factored into values.
Short-term price declines are possible, according to McDermott, but long-term opportunities exist for investors; see his fund recommendations below.
The head of investment research at AJ Bell, Ryan Hughes, says: ‘The US market has been in a real bind recently as investors try to predict the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.
The narrative shift from inflation being a short-term concern to a longer-term issue has wreaked havoc on the stock market, with some trendy technology stocks taking a beating this year while energy and healthcare have performed exceptionally well.
Hughes warns investors that the composition of the US market is very different from that of the UK, with technology comprising nearly 30 percent of the S&P 500 index.
He notes that Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Tesla comprise the top five positions.
‘As a result, the market remains vulnerable to the unpredictability of interest rates, as further increases are likely to cause the technology sector to struggle, which could temporarily depress the US market.’
What regarding bonds?
At this point in the economic cycle, there is a significant difference between purchasing US government bonds (no credit risk) and US corporate bonds (credit risk), according to McDermott.
The closer your correlation is to equities, the higher you are on the risk curve in terms of credit risk. Consequently, high-yield bonds and stocks tend to move in tandem.
Currently, he favors US government bonds due to their negative correlation with stocks during times of stress. According to McDermott, this indicates they are an excellent portfolio diversifier.
The trouble for many years has been that they offered such poor value, but with a yield of over 3%, we can at least evaluate them again.