- CPI declines to 3.9%
- FTSE 100 rises 1.3%
- Anticipation of interest rate cuts
Tuesday witnessed a bolstering of the so-called Santa rally, spurred by new data revealing a surprising decline in consumer price inflation last month.
In November, the CPI decreased to 3.9%, down from October’s 4.6%, and was below the economists’ predicted 4.4%, as reported by the Office for National Statistics.
At the open, the FTSE 100 rose by 1.3%, while yields on two-year, five-year, and 10-year government bonds each dropped by over 10 basis points, reflecting newly elevated expectations of impending interest rate cuts.
The pound’s value fell by 0.5% to $1.27 against the US dollar and by 0.4% to €1.15 against the euro.
The “sharp decline” was “considerably larger than anticipated,” noted Thomas Pugh, an economist at RSM UK. This “suggests the first interest rate cuts may be closer than we had anticipated.”
The CPI decline surprised economic analysts and the Bank of England, which had resisted expectations of impending base rate cuts.
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England will be particularly encouraged by the core CPI’s decline from 5.7% to 5.1%, excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco.
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Inflation for essential services, a persistent indicator, decreased from 6.6% to 6.3%.
Pugh suggests the greater-than-anticipated decline in CPI should additionally “assist in stabilizing inflation expectations and decelerating nominal wage growth,” mitigating a significant risk for the MPC.
“A superb early Christmas present for both the MPC and its customers,” he continued.
The mortgage rate may decline.
Anthony Codling, managing director of equity research at RBC Capital Markets, characterized the inflation reading as “positive news for the housing market in the United Kingdom” and predicted that mortgage rates would “follow suit.”
“We anticipate that today’s news will reignite the debate regarding when the bank rate will begin to decline,” he continued.
A reduction in mortgage rates will enable more individuals to purchase a home, and increased housing market activity will likely support house prices, mitigating the risk of price declines in the coming year.
“Despite today’s positive surprise, we believe services inflation could remain sticky in the 6% region through early next year,” said ING analysts.
This would appear to explain the BoE’s more prudent stance during last week’s meeting.
Unlike the Federal Reserve, the BoE implicitly resisted pricing numerous rate cuts into financial markets in 2024.
“However, we believe the markets are accurate in anticipating several rate reductions for 2024.” Investors now anticipate 140 basis points of cutbacks beginning in May 2024, in response to this latest negative inflation surprise.
“That may be pushing it, but we continue to believe the Bank would rather proceed with 100 basis point reductions beginning in August.”
