The summer wave of Covid infections has already peaked, as last week marked the first decline in cases in nearly two months.
According to the Office for National Statistics, an estimated 2,6 million people (one in twenty) had the virus on any given day in England during the week ending July 20, a 16 percent decrease from the previous week.
It is the first time infections have decreased since the start of the fifth wave in June, which was fueled by the new, highly contagious Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5.
The rapid increase in weekly cases, which peaked at 3.15 million in mid-July, prompted some scientists and health officials to call for the reinstatement of light-touch restrictions, such as face masks, free testing, and outdoor mixing.
It culminated with a health minister admitting that measures could be reinstated if Covid posed a threat to the NHS’s capacity to clear backlogs.
Sarah Crofts, head of analytical outputs for the Covid Infection Survey, stated, ‘Our most recent data suggests that we may have passed the peak of the most recent wave of infections in the United Kingdom, although infection rates continue to be among the highest seen throughout the pandemic.
“We have seen welcome declines across the majority of the United Kingdom and all age groups. As summer vacations begin and more people travel, we will continue to monitor the data closely.
The ONS found that infections decreased in Scotland and Wales during the most recent week, but the trend in Northern Ireland was uncertain. In England, every region except the North East saw a decline in cases.
Since the middle of this month, Covid hospital admissions in England have been declining, which can be attributed to the fact that although BA.4 and BA.5 are highly transmissible, they are just as mild as their parent strain.
Deaths — the most significant lagging indicator — have been on the rise for a few weeks but are still well below the levels of previous waves, with fewer than 100 daily fatalities in England among those infected with the virus.
Even fewer individuals died primarily from the disease.
In Wales, an estimated 156,200 people tested positive for Covid last week, which corresponds to 5.1% of the population or roughly 1 in 19 individuals.
In Northern Ireland, there were approximately 113,400 cases or one in 16. In Scotland, there were approximately 272,000 infections or one in 19.
In England, the proportion of individuals who tested positive decreased across all age groups and regions, except the North East.
Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious disease expert at the University of East Anglia, stated, “As anticipated, today’s ONS prevalence survey revealed a decline in infection rates in the United Kingdom.”
‘Given that these other surveillance methods continue to demonstrate a decline in infections, as do new hospital admissions and hospital patients, we can anticipate further declines in the ONS estimates for at least the next two weeks, if not longer.
Deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test should be at their peak now, but the data will not reflect this for another couple of weeks due to the delay in recording deaths.
Professor James Naismith, a biologist at the University of Oxford, remarked, “It is encouraging to see that the latest wave of covid19 is reversing, with prevalence falling across the United Kingdom.”
Scientists are perplexed by the dramatic increase of Covid deaths on the warmest day ever, as reported by MailOnline.
On July 19, 258 people infected with the virus died in England, the same day the temperature reached 40.2 degrees Celsius (104.4F).
This was the greatest daily fatality rate since April when infection rates reached record highs.
Before the onset of the heatwave, Covid infections were already at extremely high levels, according to scientists attempting to explain the unexpected increase.
They hypothesize that the increase in mortality may have been attributable to those who died from heat-related disorders but also had Covid.
Others cautioned that some old and weak individuals may have perished because they isolated themselves while infected with the illness. The searing heat may have further exacerbated the Covid infections of certain individuals.
However, due to how the NHS registers deaths, many of the deaths likely happened days before they were reported on the government’s dashboard.
Heatwaves kill up to 2,000 Britons every summer because dehydration and heatstroke can induce fatal blood clots, strokes, and deterioration in individuals with preexisting diseases.
Accidents and injuries, such as automobile collisions, are also more prevalent during heat waves.
While the exact death toll associated with last week’s record-breaking heat will not be known for months, analysts believe that more than 800 people died in the United Kingdom on Monday and Tuesday alone.
The Covid data, which is supplied by the UK Health Security Agency, account for all virus-related deaths among British citizens who tested positive for the virus within the previous 28 days.
However, not all of these fatalities are directly attributable to the infection.
Separate data indicates that Covid is the underlying cause of just six out of every ten deaths recorded on the government dashboard.
A Covid infection can also exacerbate the condition of those who are already ill, particularly those with heart and respiratory problems.
The two days of data available since the rise last week indicate a 57 percent drop in daily deaths within 48 hours. In the meantime, hospitalizations have decreased for the past two weeks.
Meaghan Kall, an epidemiologist at the United Kingdom Health Security Agency, stated that it is too early to determine definitively what caused the increase.
However, the high incidence of the virus, with one in seventeen individuals in England believed to be sick at the time, and the heatwave may be to blame.
She commented on Twitter, “The intriguing question is whether the proportion of the increased deaths are due to heatwaves, Covid, or even a combination of the two, with heat worsening severe Covid disease.”
Hot heat can cause dehydration, which thickens the blood. It also reduces blood pressure, making it more difficult to circulate blood throughout the body. This may result in blood clots and/or strokes.
And overheating can exacerbate the symptoms of heart and lung disorders, which can be fatal.
There is also an increased danger of heat exhaustion and heat stroke when exercising outdoors in hot weather. This is caused by inadequate hydration and fluid loss through perspiration.
Older individuals, those living alone or in a care facility, and those with chronic diseases are at the greatest risk.
Those who are bedridden and have preexisting diseases such as lung disease and heart disease are in the greatest danger.
Professor Hunter told that heatwaves can sadly kill a high number of people.
Some of the increase in Covid-related deaths “will have little to do with” being infected with Covid, while others will be among affected individuals who “would have lived” if not for the heatwave, he said.
Professor Hunter stated, ‘Some may have perished because the fact that they had Covid made them more socially isolated than usual, so increasing their vulnerability to the heatwave.
We may never know with certainty how many of these increased deaths were attributable to each of these variables.
Professor Lawrence Young, a virologist from the University of Warwick, told that the heatwave may have “aggravated the effects of Covid infection.”
However, he stated that it is “always difficult to separate data on deaths” due to how it is gathered.
Professor Young stated, “This surge in Covid mortality is a clear indication of the extremely high infection levels we’ve been observing over the past few weeks.
‘It is anticipated that over 70% of these deaths are not directly attributable to Covid, but are recorded as accidental infections as persons are tested upon hospital admission.
It is possible that the heatwave worsened the consequences of covid infection, especially in individuals with preexisting health issues.
However, Dr. David Strain, a senior clinical lecturer at the University of Exeter, told that the high death toll is “unlikely to be directly due to the year’s hottest day.”
Typically, the day death is documented “reflects the actions of the preceding two or three days rather than what was occurring on that specific day,” he explained.
Consequently, the fatalities reported on Tuesday, July 19 are presumably the ones that occurred over the weekend, he said.
Dr. Strain continued, “I assume this is merely a reflection of the influence of the BA.5 variety, which we know is returning to the lungs like the Delta variant and moving away from the upper airways, where BA.2 was primarily active.”
Even while nine out of ten people in the United Kingdom are double-vaccinated, which lessens the chance of serious sickness and death from Covid, it is not enough to “avoid peaks like these from occurring,” he said.
