“This has put us in the firing line,” says Józef, a 60-year-old taxi driver from the Warszów region of Świnoujście,
His seaside town is home to Poland’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant, which is considered by some to be the nation’s best chance at energy independence.
Locals like Józef are concerned that this may make the city a target for Vladimir Putin, the unpredictable leader of Russia.
Until this year, Russia supplied 40 percent of the European Union’s natural gas; however, after the brutal invasion of Ukraine in February, everyone in this region of Europe is concerned about future supplies.
As we go through tight roads through a beachside pine forest, it is difficult to imagine the peril. Along the path to the terminal, industrial machinery gleams in the sunlight.
Poland, meanwhile, is relying heavily on this small, northwestern Baltic port to save it from a catastrophic energy crisis.
After Gazprom halted deliveries to Poland in April, the Lech Kaczynski port is crucial for replenishing the lost Russian gas.
Across June, gas prices in Europe have skyrocketed. Germany has moved closer to implementing gas rationing for consumers, while Italy has joined several European nations in reporting increasing Russian supply restrictions.
Increasing capacity in Central Europe
In the meantime, workers at the Kaczynski terminal are preparing the foundations for a concrete shaft that will connect the third cylinder to unload berths some 500 meters further on the coast.
Tankers from all over the world deliver LNG to the berths, primarily Qatar and the United States, but also Norway and infrequently Nigeria or Trinidad and Tobago.
When asked if the project is on schedule, a Ukrainian employee responds with a smile and a cheery “much more than on track!”
In 2016, the terminal was completed for 3.5 billion zlotys (£615 million). It currently receives and re-gasifies around 23 percent of Poland’s yearly demand for gas, which is 21 billion cubic meters (bcm).
Upon completion of the expansion works, this will climb to 7.5 bcm annually by the end of 2023, and reports indicate that it could reach 10 bcm thereafter.
Similar to the rest of Europe, Poland is transitioning away from coal-fired power plants; however, domestic gas consumption is expanding rapidly and is expected to reach approximately 30 bcm per year, which is roughly comparable to heating nine million homes.
Competition for LNG
We pass through German bunkers from World War II that are covered with vegetation and surrounded by a barbed-wire fence as we drive through the terminal site. “The Germans are constructing their own terminal just across the border from here. But we shall surpass them “says Józef.
winoujcie is considerably closer to Berlin than Warsaw, located 90 kilometers (56 miles) from the German city as opposed to 350 kilometers (570 miles) from the Polish metropolis. In northern Germany, the building has just begun on a long-planned LNG port near Wilhelmshaven, with plans for two more near Hamburg.
As for the impact on the surrounding Polish economy, people are optimistic. Many of the jobs at the LNG terminal are accessible to locals, with enterprises also employing specialists from other regions of Poland and foreign countries.
Aleksandra Wozniak, a receptionist at Nowe Millenium, a modern hotel adjacent to a site for a new road tunnel, informs me that her energy costs are 70 percent higher than they were before the war.
She shrugs and says, “It’s ridiculous, but maybe this terminal will help.” Ms. Woniak returned to the region after seventeen years in Devon, where she worked for TK Maxx.
We returned to Poland to be closer to our family, but were met with Covid, the death of my mother-in-law, and now war.” She adds that her husband, a chef, and their four children, all born in Exeter, wish to return to the United Kingdom.
“The old winoujcie is fading away. It is a construction site. Some elderly locals dislike the changes – the loss of the small-town atmosphere and the influx of tourists. However, this is progress “She grins.
Currently, tourism appears to be a good source of revenue: the town has a population of approximately 30,000 but receives approximately 300,000 tourists throughout the summer.
The sports shop worker Oskar Janczarek has never visited the terminal. “Despite this, numerous tourists visit the location. And increased tourism is beneficial to business.
As his customers arrive, he effortlessly switches from English to Polish and then to German. In the past few months, electricity bills and other prices have skyrocketed, and the war has “made us realize even more how fluid boundaries are,” according to Oskar.
His colleague, Nadya, a young Ukrainian woman who also works for Eurosport and hails from the western Ukrainian city of Lviv, has just arrived.
The hurry to abandon Russian natural gas
To build a regional gas center, Poland is constructing interconnectors with Lithuania, Ukraine, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic to deliver surplus gas supplies to neighboring markets.
This is part of a project to refocus the central European gas market by replacing the old east-west lines with new north-south gas routes.
Henning Gloystein, Director of Energy, Climate, and Resources at the Eurasia Group, asserts that Poland will play a significant role in the EU’s attempts to phase out Russian gas imports and in achieving the long-term objective of zero greenhouse gas emissions.
“The immediate objective is to replace the nearly 10 bcm of Russian gas that Poland used to import. The majority of this will occur with the launch of the Baltic Pipe, which is slated for later this year “he adds.
“Combining [this] pipeline with LNG imports improves supply security. Long-term, Poland will have to do significantly more in terms of new energy supplies since the country must reduce its heavy reliance on coal… if it is to achieve its net-zero 2050 objectives “says Gloystein.
Slovakia, which is almost entirely reliant on Russian gas, and the Czech Republic have expressed their support for the facility. The latter’s government has stated that it will invest in the expansion of the winoujcie gas terminal.
In the meantime, LNGE has reportedly offered to finance the building of a new gas interconnector between Poland and Ukraine.
“Germany bet on Russian gas and must now rush to be able to deliver sufficient gas to its market today and in the future, unsure whether it can or should rely on Russian gas. Its energy policy, which aims to phase out coal and nuclear power, will necessitate more gas entering the market in the coming years “Anna Mikulska from Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy’s Center for Energy Studies believes these changes will alter Poland’s position in Central Europe.
She adds, “Germany’s possible aspirations to serve as a gas center for Central and Eastern Europe are no longer feasible.” “On the other hand, Poland’s are progressing nicely, with the possibility that it may need to assist its western neighbors, Germany or even further afield.”
Too late and too little?
The operator of the winoujcie terminal received an additional 3 billion zlotys (£540 million) from the Polish government in March.
Even while the terminal has been added to the EU’s list of Projects of Common Interest for 2022, signifying the bloc’s willingness to assist the project, not everyone is convinced.
Albrecht Rothacher, a German former EU official and author of the book ‘Putonomics,’ asserts that claims that Poland will become a regional gas hub are exaggerated.
“The supply from Swinemünde (winoujcie) would be insignificant,” he explains. “I am concerned that, despite our excellent intentions, it is too little, too late.”
