As climate negotiators gather in Bonn to discuss progress since the COP26 Glasgow conference, the warning of emissions not ceasing immediately increases the chances of the planet’s temperature rising by 1.5 degrees Celsius even if pollution was stopped today sets the tone.
Even if humans immediately ceased emitting all greenhouse gases and other emissions, a new study warns that the Earth is already on track to warm by 1.5 degrees Celsius.
According to a new report published in the peer-reviewed journal Nature Climate Change, if emissions are not decreased until 2029, the likelihood climbs considerably to 66%.
The findings, according to the researchers, highlight the “urgent need for action” to avoid committing to even higher levels of warming.
Scientists and countries agreed at the COP21 Paris Agreement that global warming should be limited to 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels to avoid even more damaging climate change effects.
Pollution remains in the atmosphere for years after it is released, heating the globe.
According to the study’s authors, “an understanding of the unrealized warming that will occur owing to previous emissions is required in order to assess the likelihood of limiting global warming to the Paris Agreement’s targets.”
The study’s lead author, Michele Dvorak of Washington University, developed a computer model of emissions to better comprehend “committed warming” – the effect of previously emitted greenhouse gases – under existing and alternative emissions trajectories.
According to the scientific community, global emissions must be cut by 45 percent by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050 to keep global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius.
At COP21 in Paris, all countries pledged to update their own climate action plans on a regular basis to achieve these targets, and at the COP26 climate negotiations in Glasgow, all countries promised to step up their plans ahead of this year’s annual COP summit.
However, according to a recent study by think tanks, none of the G20’s most polluting countries have enhanced their plans since COP26.
“Worse yet, none of them are on pace for a 1.5-degree route,” said Tom Evans, a geopolitics expert at climate think tank E3G.
It comes as negotiators begin a ten-day meeting in Bonn today to prepare for the COP27 talks in Egypt in November.
Mr Evans believes it is past time for the “great powers in the Bonn negotiation rooms to stop playing games with the futures of vulnerable countries,” as he put it.
He encouraged them to commit to stricter targets and greater funding in time for the Egypt negotiations, calling them the “two crucial components to keep 1.5C alive this decade.”
