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Although the British electricity system operator is less concerned than it was last winter, it warns that balancing supply and demand may still require action.
According to a much-anticipated report, the risk of a blackout is lower this winter, as power margins are almost back to levels seen before the energy crisis.
National Network According to ESO’s annual winter outlook, which evaluates the organization’s preparedness for the harshest months of November to March, the imbalance between supply and demand would only last for a few minutes.
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It projected a capacity margin of 7.4%.
Therefore, it anticipates having 4.4 gigawatts (GW) of power available to satisfy its reliability standard.
The result is better than the 6.3% (3.7 GW) projected last year when Russia’s conflict with Ukraine and sanctions for its invasion cut gas supply across Europe and drove energy prices to record highs.
In addition to placing a greater burden on UK resources, France’s struggles for nuclear output in the past year also increased the strain on British resources.
The most recent report, however, concluded that the Grid was still likely to issue so-called “margin notices” during the winter for periods when the supply-demand balance is particularly tight.
These notifications are requests for generators to provide as much power as possible to the network.
Despite increased domestic generation, increased battery storage, and the ability to share power with other nations, including France and Belgium, the Grid reported a decline in electricity demand.
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The operator can also use the Demand Flexibility Service (DFS), established last year.
Signatory households and businesses will be compensated for turning off energy-intensive appliances during periods of limited power supply.
The Grid used the DFS during a cold snap last winter following a series of test events that conserved enough energy to power roughly 10 million households.
Craig Dyke, chief of national control for the ESO, commented on the blackout risk: “Compared to last year, it is almost back to where it was before last winter.
Therefore, the likelihood of the risks we discussed last year occurring is much, much reduced.
The loss of five coal-fired power plants that were held in reserve over the winter is the greatest obstacle confronting the Grid this autumn.
They were capable of producing electricity when, for instance, the wind did not blow, but negotiations with EDF and Drax in the spring failed to produce new contingency contracts.
Since there is no coal backup to rely on if margins become limited, gas and nuclear capacity become increasingly important.
National Gas, which administers the British gas grid, stated in a separate report that it did not anticipate an increase in exports to Europe this year due to the continent’s increased storage capacity.
Increased output from alternative sources, particularly wind, would reduce pressure on domestic supplies and require less gas to produce energy, the business said.
An unexpected loss of wind, gas, or nuclear generation would force the nation to use power from neighbouring countries via the interconnector network.
Five operate, connecting the United Kingdom to France, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Norway.
The under-construction Viking Link will connect the UK and Denmark by the end of the year.
Once operational, the two nations will be able to share sufficient electricity to power up to 1,400,000 residences.
Through these arrangements, the United Kingdom imports more energy than it exports annually.
Depending on the power sources utilized, this can increase electricity costs; however, the United Kingdom’s leading position in wind power can work to its advantage.
Despite this, annual energy costs remain approximately £1,000 higher than they were before the pandemic.
From October to December, a household paying by direct debit for gas and electricity will incur an average annual charge of £1,923, a decrease of approximately £150 from the previous three months.
Many households will be worse off this winter as a result of the loss of universal government support for utility bills, according to industry projections that the average bill will exceed £2,000 when the next price limit adjustment is made for January-March.
