The ONS reported that the World Cup’s absence from Premier League football lowered output in December 2022.
Early official numbers indicate that the UK narrowly averted recession in the second half of last year, despite growth reversing sharply in December due in part to the impact of strikes and the absence of Premier League football.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that output remained unchanged at 0% between October and December.
A negative number would have satisfied the precise definition of a recession, as the economy contracted in the three months before September as the cost of the living problem had a significant impact on consumer spending.
Energy-driven price pressures on individuals and businesses have largely halted economic growth. With the Bank of England stating in November of last year that the UK was likely already in recession.
The small miss, which is subject to modification by the ONS as additional data becomes available. Indicates an economy that is at best stagnant as a result of a continuous compression of purchasing power.
According to the ONS, output decreased by 0.5% compared to the previous month in December, with early winter snow disruptions and strikes, such as the Royal Mail dispute, contributing to the fall.
Businesses reported a decrease in orders throughout the month owing to delivery uncertainty.
The survey also indicated that the World Cup had a negative effect. Even though domestic bar sales at match screenings were credited with boosting output in November.
Director of economic statistics at the ONS, Darren Morgan, commented on the performance, stating, “The economy dropped sharply in December, resulting in no growth for the final three months of 2022.”
“In December, public services were negatively impacted by fewer operations and GP visits, partially as a result of the impact of strikes, as well as significantly decreased school attendance.
“In the meantime, the World Cup break in Premier League football and postal strikes also caused a slowdown.
“However, these declines were partially offset by a successful month for lawyers, an increase in automobile sales, and a cold snap that boosted energy production.”
In 2022 as a whole, the economy expanded by 4%.
“Despite recent declines in household income, restaurants, pubs, and travel agencies enjoyed a prosperous year. In the interim, health, and education also began to recover from the pandemic’s impacts.
Economists are mostly of the opinion that a recession would occur during the first half of this year, with the International Monetary Fund forecasting last month that the United Kingdom will be the worst-performing developed nation, including sanctions-affected Russia.
However, others have maintained that a recession might be avoided despite inflation’s persistent impact on budgets.
The government’s detractors are asking the chancellor to utilize the upcoming spring budget to stimulate economic growth. Accusing him of a miserly approach to public finances.
The Treasury and the Bank of England are concerned that inflation-busting pay agreements may fuel inflation.
In response to the ONS data, Jeremy Hunt stated, “The fact that the UK had the fastest expanding economy in the G7 last year and avoided a recession demonstrates that our economy is more resilient than many expected.
“However, we are not yet out of the woods, especially in terms of inflation.
We’ll have Europe’s best growth prospects if we slash inflation in half this year.
