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Second-lowest real pay increase since records began; unemployment rate rises

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The ONS analyses the impact of inflation on salaries, and data indicates that October had the highest number of working days lost to strike action since November 2011.

In October, the United Kingdom experienced its second-largest decline in real wage growth since records began in 2001, and the unemployment rate increased, according to newly released official employment data, which also indicate the growing impact of strikes on the economy.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that pay growth was 4.2% lower when the effects of CPI inflation were included, compared to a reading of 3.7% the previous month, indicating a definite worsening of the cost of living crisis.

Second-lowest real pay increase since records began; unemployment rate rises

A low of 4.6% was reached in April, just after the Russian invasion of Ukraine at the end of February aggravated the inflation increase.

In October, the rate of inflation reached 11.1%, the highest level in 41 years, as a result of the recent rises in energy costs, which were mitigated by government help.

The ONS statistics also revealed a stark contrast between public and private sector salary growth in the three months leading up to October, with public sector workers experiencing an average annual income growth rate of 2.7%.

It was 6.9% for private sector employees, which was somewhat higher but still far below the inflation rate.

The data were announced as a new round of rail strikes began, with more widespread disruption expected in the run-up to the holiday season affecting nurses, ambulance personnel, and Royal Mail employees, among others.

In October, the ONS stated that 417,000 days were lost due to strikes, a number that is expected to increase as unions and the government remain at odds over public sector pay.

Pay, excluding bonuses, increased by 6.1%, the largest gain since records began in 2001, when jumps during the COVID-19 era, which were distorted by lockdowns and government support measures, were omitted.

The number is expected to be included when the Bank of England, which is lobbying for lower wage settlements in its fight against inflation, meets this week to set Bank rates.

The ONS stated that the unemployment rate increased to 3.7% during the same time.

This was an increase from the 3.6% reported one month prior.

In the three months before November, the number of job openings decreased by 65,000 to 1.9 million, marking the fifth consecutive quarterly decline and the first annual decline since the beginning of last year.

In a time of escalating expenditures, however, the numbers indicate that more people are opting to return to work, with the inactivity rate falling to 21.5% as those in their 50s elect to return to the workforce.

Sam Beckett, head of economic statistics for the ONS, stated: “This quarter, the proportion of persons who are neither working nor searching for work decreased, since fewer people of working age considered themselves to be retired.

“This is consistent with recent data indicating that more individuals in their 50s are considering returning to the workforce at a time when the cost of living is growing fast.

“As more persons re-entered the labor force, both the number of employed and those actively seeking employment increased.”

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