Director of economic statistics at the Office for National Statistics (ONS), Darren Morgan, stated, “The economy increased somewhat in November, with growth in telecommunications and computer programming helping to propel it forward.”
The economy increased by 0.1% in November, buoyed in part by the World Cup, according to official data, contradicting predictions that the United Kingdom is now in recession.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that demand was hampered by the consequences of high inflation. But boosted by the number of people who packed pubs and bars to witness the events in Qatar.
Economists had anticipated a negative growth rate of approximately 0.2%.
The November data followed a positive growth reading in October, which was mostly attributable to a return to normalcy in output following the passing of the late Queen.
The additional holiday for the burial in September caused the majority of companies to close.
The Bank of England was among the governmental institutions that predicted the United Kingdom would enter a recession in the third quarter of 2022.
Should the ONS report negative growth for the period from October to December. The economy will have met the requirements for a recession: two consecutive quarters of contraction.
A rather significant decline in output last month is not anticipated.
The ONS reported that the gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by 0.3% between July and November.
This includes the 0.6% fall in September output and the 0.5% increase in October output.
Director of economic statistics at the Office for National Statistics (ONS), Darren Morgan, stated, “The economy increased somewhat in November, with growth in telecommunications and computer programming helping to propel it forward.
“As many went out to watch World Cup matches, pubs and bars also did well.
This was somewhat offset by continued declines in various manufacturing areas. Especially the often-volatile pharmaceutical business, as well as declines in transportation and postal services, partially as a result of strikes.
Despite this, the economy contracted over the past three months, primarily due to the impact of the extra bank holiday in September for the funeral of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth.
According to him, the economy would need to fall by 0.6% or more in December for the fourth quarter of 2022 to be considered technically in recession.
Despite the averted recession, family earnings are decreasing.
The likelihood of averting such a recession is diminishing not only in the United Kingdom. But also in Europe and the United States. However, this does not imply that everything is well.
As energy-driven prices continue to limit orders and investment. Business groups warned that many industries were failing and required government assistance to protect jobs.
In the first half of 2023, the Bank of England is still expected to pursue interest rate hikes to reduce inflation. Hence increasing mortgage costs and adding to the pressure on consumers.
In response to the GDP figures, the Resolution Foundation, a think tank focused on living standards. Stated that while a recession in 2022 had likely been avoided, family incomes continued to decline.
Jonathan Moyes, head of investment research at the Wealth Club investor service, commented on the UK’s prospects. “Retailers have reported stronger-than-expected earnings reports for the fourth quarter over the past week. And it appears that stronger-than-expected consumer services and services, in general, have helped the UK economy defy pessimistic forecasts.
“It may be too early to declare the beginning of a shift in opinion in the United Kingdom. But a consensus seems to be emerging.
Energy costs are down, China is reopening, and interest rate forecasts have softened considerably,” he added.
