- Russia balances ties with Iran, Israel in conflict
- Moscow wary of full war, benefits from regional chaos
- Hezbollah’s role complicates Russia’s Lebanon position
Anna Levina, a Russian researcher and photographer-documentarian based in Beirut, has been stockpiling supplies in anticipation of Israel’s assault on Lebanon, and she has had non-perishables in her kitchen since last October when Hezbollah and Israel began firing missiles at each other.
“The feeling is, of course, unpleasant, but I’ve been waiting for this moment for a year,” Levina said of Israel’s major escalation of missile strikes on numerous sections of Lebanon, including Beirut, during the past two weeks, which has killed over 2,000 people. On Tuesday, Israel also announced the start of ground operations in southern Lebanon, where its forces have since clashed with Hezbollah fighters.
Levina described how the Israeli army was “bombing residential buildings, and just now there was another air strike three kilometres from me on some medical centre.”
“It is difficult to cope with this on a human level,” she told me.
According to commentators, Russia’s widening confrontation with Israel and its neighbours is also tough on a strategic level.
Russia’s foreign policy under President Vladimir Putin has focused on a “multipolar world,” an alternative to the US-led world order. With the possibility of a confrontation between Israel and Iran and the war having spread significantly into Lebanon, what does this latest crisis signify for Russia’s interests as a global power?
The ongoing escalation of the Arab-Israeli conflict is of serious concern to Russia,” said Alexey Malinin, founder of the Center for International Interaction and Cooperation and a member of the Nigeria Expert Club think tank, citing Russia’s repeated appeals for a diplomatic resolution.
However, these attempts are constantly met with opposition, as evidenced by the United States inclination to back Israel in practically any crisis, particularly militarily. And this backing, which is then utilized to transform Lebanon into a battlefield, undermines all claims about the US’s commitment to maintain peace in the region.
In contrast to the US and its allies’ unwavering backing for Israel, Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has condemned the entry of Israeli troops into Lebanon and urged Israel to withdraw the troops. Earlier, Russia condemned the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, saying Israel “bears full responsibility for the subsequent escalation.
However, if the conflict extends, particularly to Iran, observers argue that Russia’s ambitions are not solely motivated by bigger foreign policy ideas.
‘Fall into Iran’s circle’
Russia has received major Iranian help for its invasion of Ukraine, which is linked to Tehran’s regional goals.
Russia has been closely cooperating with Iran for the past two-and-a-half years, but exclusively in the military sphere,” said Ruslan Suleymanov, an independent Russian Middle East specialist based in Baku, Azerbaijan.
“Iranian weapons are in high demand.” They’ve never been in more demand, and Russia has become reliant on Iranian armaments.”
According to Suleymanov, Iranian military instructors are now visiting Russia and assisting in the construction of a plant to manufacture Shahid drones within Russia.
As a result, Russia is forced to support Iran’s allies in the Middle East such as the Hezbollah movement,” Suleymanov wrote in an email.
Whereas Malinin blames Washington for impeding peacemaking efforts, Suleymanov believes Moscow’s regional policies directly result from “falling into Iran’s orbit”.
Welcomes disruption but does not want war.
However, both Malinin and Suleymanov agree that Russia does not want to go to war again.
“Moscow is not interested in a huge firestorm,” Suleymanov stated.
“We witnessed this in April. When it appeared that Iran and Israel were about to go to war, Russia did not openly support Iran. Russia advised both Iran and Israel to exercise patience,” he said, referring to tensions that erupted after Israel hit an Iranian consulate in Damascus in April, killing senior Iranian military officers. Iran replied by shooting missiles into Israel for the first time in history.
At the same time, Suleymanov stated that “Russia benefits from the chaos in the Middle East.
The Americans are now distracted from the Ukraine conflict because they must spend a significant amount of effort handling the Middle East problem.
“But at the same time, the Kremlin would not like to see [another] major war,” he said.
Russia and Iran have a shared hostility toward the United States. They also have a common supporter in Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who intervened in his country’s civil conflict. Russian bombers blasted rebel-held cities while Hezbollah fought fiercely on the ground. Russia has significant interests in Syria, including military bases and oil and gas reserves.
To alleviate tensions with Israel, Moscow utilized its influence in Tehran to convince Hezbollah to withdraw from the Syrian-Israeli border.
Levina, a Russian researcher living in Beirut, stated that observers believe Israel and Russia have a tacit understanding of Syria. She noted Israel’s reluctance to give military gear to Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. She claimed that when Israel bombs Hezbollah strongholds in southern Syria, where Moscow’s troops are present, “Russia does nothing, just lets them.”
Russia’s delicate relationship with Lebanon and Hezbollah
Russia has modest interests in Lebanon. During Soviet times, Lebanese students, particularly members of the Communist Party, were invited to attend Patrice Lumumba University in Moscow, and some enthusiasm for modern Russia continues, as evidenced by Putin billboards occasionally seen in Shia and Orthodox Christian neighbourhoods.
“The USSR was very active with the communist parties here, and they had common interests,” Levina stated, referring to Palestine and Armenians living in Lebanon.
She stated that Russia’s contacts with Lebanon are no longer as wide as they once were and that relations with Hezbollah have long been complex.
During the Lebanese Civil War, which lasted from 1975 to 1990, Hezbollah allegedly kidnapped three Soviet diplomats to pressure Moscow to utilize its influence over Syria to stop shelling Tripoli strongholds. After one captive was executed, the KGB reportedly kidnapped and castrated a Hezbollah leader’s relative before presenting the appendage. The remainder of the hostages were quickly released. Hezbollah or the Kremlin has not officially authenticated this account.
Join the Webull revolution in the UK and receive your free shares today
The de facto allies are still not particularly close, with reports of difficulties over Hezbollah’s prolonged presence in Syria.
On Thursday, a Russian emergency plane flew 60 family members of diplomatic workers out of Lebanon, but more than 3,000 Russian nationals remain there. The same plane transported 33 tons of humanitarian relief, which included food, medical supplies, and power generators. Additional evacuations could occur.
Levina, meantime, thinks Hezbollah would hinder Israel’s advance.
“It was, of course, very unpleasant, but the ground invasion was, dare I say, good news because this is Israel’s third time making this mistake,” she said, alluding to Israel’s invasion and occupation of Lebanon in 1982 and the conflict in 2006.
“And they’re not learning at all.”
